Palin: It's not about Women, It's about Conservatives

A lot of the immediate analysis has been focusing on Sarah Palin's selection as a play for the female vote, particularly, the disillusioned Hillary vote. I believe this entirely misses the point. It is about giving conservatives something to vote for rather than something to vote against. The goal is to close the enthusiasm gap and make Republicans feel that (i) they are also making history and (ii) they are voting for the future, rather than regressing by choosing a grizzly 72-year old.

To this point, it was always a fallacy to believe that everyone who voted for Hillary in the primary would vote for her in the general against a more conservative candidate. And for those voters, Obama could never have done anything to win their vote. It has always also been a fallacy to assume Hillary was the sole possessor of the key to the female vote.

Mcain-Pain

Yes, I meant to write Pain not Palin. In the first analysis, I have to say the selection of Sarah "Baracuda" Palin as the VP choice is absolutely brilliant, not because she's the best woman for the job but because she's the best candidate to negate Senator Obama's strengths and exploit his weaknesses:

1. The surprise of her announcement has completely, completely wiped the Democratic Convention off the news cycle.
2. She takes away the Democrat's monopoly on making history.
3. She doubles up on the message of being a reformer. She bucked the Alaska GOP to get elected.
4. She helps McCain appropriate Obama's sense of freshness. She even played basketball in high-school like Obama!
5. She furthers McCain's appeal to disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters.
6. She neutralizes the argument that McCain isn't one of us--her husband is a commercial fisherman and oil worker.
7. She reels in the conservative vote.
Abortion: she refused to abort her own down-syndrome baby, who was only born in April.
Gun-control: she's been hunting all her life.
8. With her 5 kids, she appeals to working mums.
9. Her eldest son is in Iraq right now, there goes the (conservative) military vote.
10. The Obama camp can't criticize her inexperience without implicitly criticizing their own candidate.
11. Joe Bidden, who is notoriously gaffe-prone, has his work cut out for him not to appear condescending or aggressive during the debates. Furthermore, the expectations for her are going to be pretty low so its going to be hard for her not to overperform.
12. She's certainly the anti-Dick Cheney.
13. Most importantly, she adds excitement to a Republican Party that had had all the appeal of a bingo party at the nursing home.

Now this is how the McCain campaign has defined her; the Obama campaign needs to get to work redefining her if they want to win.

1. Who the hell is Sarah Palin?!!!
2. She has no experience of politics on the national stage, she has never campaigned nationally or dealt with the complexities of the national media attention.
3. Even John McCain had met her only once in person before this.
4. She has no foreign policy or legislative experience.
5. Can she pass the commander-in-chief test? Hillary Clinton didn't get there in one day and Barack is still struggling to get there.
6. Is she a political "trophy-wife"? No offense Cindy, but you often look like a prop beside McCain. Is this the political equivalent?
6. Does she appear to be a pretender to Hillary Clinton's throne?
7. Does she have the gravitas to challenge John McCain when she needs to? No one doubts Biden is prepared to give Obama input.
8. Is she too right-leaning for Independents and centrists?
9. She is involved in a mini-scandal from her office's efforts to get her brother-in-law fired. Ironically, this might work in her favor.People might side with the sister rather than the brother-in-law.
10. Finally, elections are about the number 1 and not the number 2.

Having said that, I still think she's going to be tough to fight and not to be "misunderstimated."

Barack Time Capsule

Discovered on the blog "Old Man McCain" via Andrew Sullivan. A 13-year old interview of Obama on his first book--the guy has been consistent.

The Candidates at Saddleback

Sorry, I haven't posted in a while. News cycle got kinda slow. I miss the good ol' days with Hillary Clinton. McCain seems to suck the fun out of politics despite his attempts at humorous ads. There's just an underlying cynicism and viciousness that underlies his politics.

Anyway, to the issue at hand, the candidates' appearance at Rick Warren's Saddleback Church. I though Obama did quite well...if he was on Charlie Rose! McCain treated this as what it was, a political campaign appearance and a chance to pander for the Evangelical and Religio-Nationalist vote.

The only question that Obama really needed to ace, considering his audience, was the abortion question. I actually believe there are many people who want to vote for him but won't because of this. Now, you don't ace this by saying that "it's above your pay grade." What!? Just give a concise rational answer and focus on what you think is important to all people of good will--reducing the number of abortions regardless of whether you're pro-choice or pro-life. He eventually rambled towards that answer. Nuance doesn't play well in politics Obama. Compare with McCain's simplistic one line answers. Now, we all know life isn't that simple but professorial answers don't play well on the campaign trail. Just ask Al Gore and John Kerry!

Warren did a great job with the initial questions, but he needed some tougher follow up questions. McCain was getting too much time to wallow in his anecdotes and stump speech lines.

All things considered, I think this was a winner for McCain. I don't think Obama won any new support in the evangelical world, rather he reinforced the support of those like me who support him precisely because he is thoughtful and deliberative. McCain, on the other hand, probably won new support because his answers potrayed the world in black and white; how reassuring, if only life were so simple. Ultimately, this is an election for the simplifier-in-chief, so Obama needs to take off the well-worn professorial jacket. As the Mrs. noted, Hillary Clinton would probably have aced this test.