Monday, May 5, 2008

The Fallacy of Polls

Two polls being are out today reporting almost contradictory things about the effect of the J.Wright controverse. The first by USA today proclaims that "Flap over pastor hurts Obama." They report:
Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.
Another report coming from the NY Times reports "In Poll, Obama Survives Furor." They continue:
A majority of American voters say that the furor over the relationship between Senator Barack Obama and his former pastor has not affected their opinion of Mr. Obama, but a substantial number say that it could influence voters this fall should he be the Democratic presidential nominee.
I'd advise any candidate to take all polls with a pinch of salt. I don't understand how polling a thousand or so people is supposed to give an accurate read of a couple of hundred million.

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